EP. 7 — BEATING THE MACHINE

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Weston Wamp:  I'm Weston Wamp and this is Swamp Stories brought to you by Issue One.

So far I've shown you the depths of the swamp: dark money, slush funds in Congress, super PACs, and a lot more. But today we're going to talk about how the broken political system is beginning to change before our eyes and how a new wave of candidates has a chance to take down the political machine using new tools and a different approach. One defeated a powerful New York incumbent...

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:  But after 20 years of the same representation, we have to ask, “Who has New York been changing for?”

Weston Wamp:  The other, navigated a crowded Texas primary with mega donors and famous politicians working against him.

Dan Crenshaw: Dealing with the problems we have ahead, you know, these kinds of issues cannot be solved by talking points. They really have to be solved by people with experience.

Weston Wamp: You know their names, but you may not realize how from completely different backgrounds, a combat veteran and a community organizer, win seats in Congress, when conventional wisdom said they would not. They did it without, well, connected families or wall-to-wall TV ads. They both built grassroots armies, ran digital first campaigns, and relied on volunteers and voters who probably felt like they'd been left out of politics. These candidates flipped the script that money matters most in campaigns. And in the end, a message was sent to big donors: that the 1/2 of 1% who are used to picking winners and losers in our politics, well, that game is changing. My voice and your voice matters as much as those that come with big checks. 

This is episode seven: Beating the Machine.

I'd bet that I speak for a lot of us when I say we need more regular people in the People's House. More soldiers who have been on the front lines, they know the price of war. More single mothers who know how food stamps work. More nurses who've experienced how broken healthcare is. But as we've seen, there's a strong case that the system favors the well-connected and those already in positions of power.

But what does it look like when someone wins who doesn't fit the mold? Who doesn't play by the same rules? To tell the story, I'm going to go back to 2018. We all remember the Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz.

Beto O'Rourke:  He's dishonest. That's why the president called him "Lying Ted." And it's why the nickname stuck because it's true. 

Ted Cruz:  Well, it's clear Congressman O'Rourke's pollsters have told them to come out on the attack. So if he wants to insult me and call me a liar, that's fine. But you know, John Adams famously said, facts are stubborn things.

Weston Wamp: That race broke every record for candidate spending in elections, coming in at a total of $125 million. And even after his campaign spent $80 million, Beto lost, failing to unseat incumbent Texas Senator Ted Cruz. But there was another race in Texas underway in early 2018 that received a lot less attention, but with consequences just as significant. And this time the challenger did win.

Dan Crenshaw: I was outspent 30 to one by just one candidate, not all nine. So it's possible in the digital age. 

Weston Wamp:  It should have been bigger news because Dan Crenshaw beat the machine. In a lot of ways, he upset the political order and that should always be something we pay attention to. After all, that's what this podcast is about, taking on the establishment and fixing the broken political system. 

I sat down with Dan Crenshaw to talk about his race and to see what we could learn from his upset victory. For some background, I first met Crenshaw in the summer of 2018, after he'd won his primary, before he won the general election and at a coffee shop in Houston. We talked about how the swamp really works. And about his life as a Navy Seal and going into a very different environment than the one he's used to. 

Dan Crenshaw:  I wanted to go into policy work because I thought that would make sense after leaving the military. I didn't want to leave the military. I had to because of my medical conditions. 

Weston Wamp:  Obviously now he's on his way to being a household name in American politics. But Crenshaw made headlines before he was even sworn in because Saturday Night Live made a lame joke at his expense. In true Crenshaw fashion, he showed up on SNL the next week and made a much funnier appearance alongside Pete Davidson. 

Dan Crenshaw:  This is Pete Davidson. He looks like if the meth from Breaking Bad was a person. 

Weston Wamp:  Just a few months earlier, the rise of Congressman Dan Crenshaw couldn't have been less likely. He was one of a bunch of candidates that had entered a crowded Republican primary? 

Dan Crenshaw:  A day later, we were moving into my parents game room to start a campaign. You don't even know who to hire. You don't have any money. How does that even look? And we're not self funders. Nobody in my family could. put anything up so it's not easy. If you knew what to do, it'd be hard, but then you don't even know really what to do. So that makes it harder. 

Weston Wamp:  Among his opponents was one of the wealthiest political donors in Texas politics who decided that she wanted to run for Congress. 

Male Voice:  Kathaleen Wall has been a behind the scenes mover and shaker in Houston politics for years. I know her well. 

Ted Cruz:  This is Ted Cruz. Boy do I have a surprise for Washington. We need Kathaleen Wall. She doesn't just talk the talk. If you want to help Texas, and America, get behind Kathaleen Wall's run for Congress. Paid for by Kathaleen Wall for Congress.

Weston Wamp: Wall's husband, under the lax campaign finance laws that Texas is known for, had given Governor Greg Abbott $750,000. Talk about being a major donor. That's actually legal in Texas. 

Wall and her husband were also major donors of Ted Cruz, so it might not shock you to learn that even up against a decorated war hero, a state legislator, and several business people, Governor Abbott and Senator Cruz, both chose to endorse their major donor. 

In addition to picking up maybe the two biggest endorsements in Texas Republican politics, Kathaleen Wall spent her own money. All told, she spent over $6 million, mostly her own, mainly on network and cable television. That's the traditional way that millions of campaign dollars are spent. To put it in perspective, very few congressional candidates have ever spent more money than Kathaleen Wall did in this primary in Texas. 

Dan Crenshaw, on the other hand, spent tens of thousands of dollars on radio, online advertising, and some direct mail. And that might sound like a lot of money, but his expenditures don't look anything like a major primary for the US Congress in one of the largest markets in America. Crenshaw was able to do more with less. And in fairness to Crenshaw, what can't be overlooked in the retelling of this story is it that he was really good on the stump. 

Dan Crenshaw:  My name's Dan Crenshaw. I'm running because I think we need leaders who've been tested. My first test was in Katy, Texas. I lost my mother when I was 10 years old to breast cancer. She taught me everything I know about Texas values: respect, hard work, never quit, and have integrity in everything you do. 

Weston Wamp:  There's a beauty to a high profile primary, where the turnout can be a fraction of what it is in the general election. Every face to face interaction just matters more than dollars. For example, Crenshaw taught CrossFit classes to reach voters. He once ran a hundred miles in a week across the district to draw attention to what he was doing. In hindsight, his degree from the Kennedy School at Harvard probably came in handy. He made it his mission to connect with voters everywhere he could, always representing and talking about his Texas values along the way. He went on to win the runoff, walking away. Crenshaw beat the political machine, the major donors, the millionaires, the rigged political system.

We're going to take a short break.

Welcome back to Swamp Stories. To be frank, stories like Crenshaw's are few and far between. And he's clear eyed about how unique his situation was. You can't copy and paste this strategy in every district in the country. 

Dan Crenshaw:  Well, I didn't run against an incumbent, so I don't know what kind of uphill battle that is. I'm sure it would be an uphill battle.

Weston Wamp:  He also just highlighted another part of the broken political system that honestly isn't talked about enough. Incumbents have an advantage. That's unavoidable, but big money makes it a lot worse. 

Dan Crenshaw:  Not because there's anything corrupt about the system, but just because this is what it is naturally. Sometimes your running record is bad and people don't like it, but for the most part, you're always engaging. So there's nothing inherently corrupt about that. It's just the reality of why incumbents have an obvious advantage. 

Weston Wamp:  My whole life I've lived through the advantages that incumbents have. My dad tried to beat one when I was a kid and he lost. After she retired, he went on to win and win handily for 16 years. In my own race against an incumbent, I saw PAC money flow in. Out-of-state donors suddenly took an interest in my rank and file congressman. In fact, across the board, well over 90% of corporate PAC money goes to incumbents. 

In most cases, challengers don't even really have a chance. I reached out to Lisa Gilbert with Public Citizen to get her take on the extreme advantages of being an incumbent. 

Lisa Gilbert:  Without question, being an incumbent gives you an enormous financial advantage. Incumbents generally don't have to work as hard to get their name out, to get their message out, and for voters, they know the name of their incumbent, and when they get to the voting box, that's who they tick. 

The advantage for the incumbent is huge and challengers really need to have charisma. But oftentimes they need to have some kind of angel donor or some sort of Super PAC who decides they like them. 

Weston Wamp: Gilbert also points to PACs as a major advantage for incumbents.

Lisa Gilbert:  There’s no wonder that when we look at PACs we look at an entity that is going to choose to favor the person who's already in office who will keep the status quo.

Weston Wamp:  In the same cycle is Crenshaw, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who you know as AOC, rose from relative obscurity to defeat a 20 year incumbent congressman in New York city, a member of democratic leadership, no less. She pulled it off in part because of a viral video that allowed her to begin raising small dollar contributions from all over the country at a high volume.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez:  My name is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. I'm an educator, an organizer, a working class New Yorker. I've worked with expectant mothers, I've waited tables, and led classrooms. And going into politics wasn't in the plan. 

Weston Wamp:  Ultimately, it gave her enough money to run a major campaign. And with serious money, she ran a true grassroots campaign. It was so successful that candidates on both sides of the aisle are trying to replicate it this cycle. Both Crenshaw and AOC managed to use a combination of small dollar donors, social media, and ground game to take on age old political orthodoxy. 

One did it by running a savvy micro-targeted campaign under the radar. A lot of people in Houston didn't know who Dan Crenshaw was until he'd won. And the other one, using the power of social media to contrast her very progressive politics with the Democratic establishment and rake in small dollar donors from all across the country. 

I don't think you can overstate how small dollar donors have the potential to change our political system. The idea of mass numbers of people contributing 10, 20 dollars, whatever they can, to see their chosen candidate win. It really could cause the ground to shift underneath our campaigns as we know them. Just look at 2020, small dollars are powering virtually all of the presidential campaigns on both sides of the aisle.

In recent election cycles, the Democrats’ Act Blue fundraising platform has pointed liberal donors across the country to hot races that they can affect with a contribution. Crenshaw now has his own small dollar fundraising base, the result of having millions of followers on Twitter and Instagram. And he says that the success of the Democrats Act Blue fundraising program and the new commitment that Republicans have made to their program, Win Red, speak to the growing role of the small dollar donor. 

Candidates are proving that just running television ads, the same old way campaigns have for decades, doesn't always work. In fact, as I've said before, nothing would threaten the political industrial complex that's protected incumbents for so long more than flipping the entire system on its head by incentivizing more small dollar donors. What you know if you've run for office, is that whether somebody gives $10 or $1,000, they're bought in, they're invested in a candidate. Now you want to talk about shaking the political system to its core: Imagine the system not being built for $2,800 donors, let alone million dollar donors who fund outside groups. For decades, giving a political contribution was an activity of the 1%. But the small dollar donor revolution is changing that. To dig into this idea just a little further, I reached out to Michael Malbin. He's the co-founder and executive director of the Campaign Finance Institute, and he's been tracking money in politics for three decades as an author, professor, and journalist. 

I called Michael for some context specifically on the rapid rise of small dollar contributions. He said it all started with the John McCain campaign in 2000.

Michael Malbin:  If you look at any election since then, you see two or three different kinds of learning curves. 

Weston Wamp:  What he's pointing out is that technology has gotten better. Win Red and Act Blue have made it much easier for people to give online. Secondly, candidates have adapted to the changes in technology and they've learned to raise money through more than just direct mail and high dollar fundraisers. The evolution really began in 2000 when members of John McCain's team saw potential in online fundraising. Then Howard Dean revolutionized email fundraising. President Obama took it to a whole new level in 2008 and 2012. And about that time, Republicans in Congress, not just presidential candidates, but congressmen like Allen West and Michelle Bachmann started to raise serious money online. Now here we are in 2020 and some candidates are saying they're only going to take small dollar donors and they're swearing off major donor fundraising.

Malbin points out that what might be next is an inflection point that could affect Congress as we see more and more digital natives, like AOC and Crenshaw, run for office themselves. 

Michael Malbin:  The odd part of the learning curve also is simply generational replacement. That people who have grown up with these tools are grittier to put them into effect in their businesses, and in their political campaigning.

Weston Wamp:  Even more encouraging is that advertising isn't enough. Malbin explains the difference between advertising and actually communicating is especially important in the social media era. 

Michael Malbin:  Money is a tool you use to buy communications, or staff, one or the other. We learned from President Trump's campaign during the primaries of 2016 that if you can get that communication without spending a lot of money, that is more valuable than putting money into traditional television advertising. What a new generation of politicians is learning, is that their cohorts are not watching network television. They're barely watching television. 

They are learning that the game is about communicating and even better than communicating in a one way communication through an advertisement, they are learning that developing a relationship gets you followers and it gets you people who, especially if they're your constituents, they'll be with you.

Weston Wamp:  Crenshaw had a similar take when I asked him about the changing trends in campaigns. 

Dan Crenshaw:  If your message is worth hearing, people will want to hear it. If you're willing to put in the time and the effort and get creative and again, make your message worth hearing, you can beat out other big money candidates.

Weston Wamp:  And as Malbin points out, as voters gain influence by being able to engage politicians on social media, others might lose power. 

Michael Malbin:  Certain gatekeepers will have less power. Certainly the kinds of Washington lobbyists who could promise to bring 50 donors into a room, will have less power relatively than he or she had 20 years ago.

Weston Wamp:  I told you that we were going to flip the script in this episode, so we want to leave you with a thought that we started with: even with small dollar donations on the rise, 1/2 of 1% of people give more than $200 in federal elections. At the end of the day, we need more people participating in our elections, more people donating, more people voting, more people volunteering and getting in the fight to fix our broken political system.

And if you take nothing else away from this episode, remember this: AOC and Dan Crenshaw, two of the biggest names in American politics, are millennials without well-connected families or millions of dollars, and they ran for Congress and won. You could too. 

Thanks for listening to Swamp Stories presented by Issue One, the country's leading political reform organization that unites Republicans, Democrats, and independents to fix our broken political system. 

Please subscribe to the podcast and share it with your friends. Even better rate and review it on iTunes to help us reach more listeners. You can find out more at swampstories.org. I'm your host, Weston Wamp. Thank you to executive producer, Ethan Rome, producer William Gray, and editor Parker Tan from parkerpodcasting.com. Swamp Stories was recorded in Tennessee, edited in Texas, and can be found wherever you listen to podcasts.

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